The Presidential Race 08

[Chavez Ravine]

Here's your basic political analysis from a middle of the road site. Really nothing earth shattering.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/campaign_choice

Here's what I find interesting:

Title: What does Obama have to do...
I think the title sums up the majorities attitude (including my own) that this is Obama's race to lose. I think this is a dangerous situation for Obama. It's hard to be an inexperienced/rookie front runner. I think that is illustrated with the poll numbers (quoting from article) that 55% of American are positive about the dems and 39% are positive about Reps, however Obama has a 4% lead (which really is a statistical tie) With the discontent within the nation regarding Bush, there really shouldn't be a race right now (imo). It maybe that the next two months bears that out, but I also think McCain has run a very good race to this point.

I also know that obama's strategy is to link McCain to Bush. In all honesty I'm not sure how fair that is. On Iraq they have been locked in, but the Maverick persona was forged for a reason. I think McCain has a good shot at being able to weather that this strategy. McCain in reality was the only legit shot reps had at the oval office this term because of the moderate nature he has and the history of working with both sides. Remember he was batted around as a running mate for Kerry.

Finally the last issue is the one of race. How big a part will it play. I read another article recently that said if obama loses it will start a national race riot. A bigot is going to have a tough time this election. My heart really goes out to them. They have to vote for a minority on one of the tickets. Is a white women better than a black man? I would think it would be a tough choice. The deal breaker maybe that a minority is running for President and one for VP. I think that race will be the silent issue of the race. It won't be talked about (unless he loses) and it won't be addressed. I hope that it isn't an issue, but i also realize living in Cali it's far different from other places.

[Majikku]

I think McCain has a good shot at being able to weather that this strategy

I think the Obama people have done a great job as painting McCain has Bush's third term,I dont think McCain has "weathered" or countered that very well. I talk to alot of my coworkers who dont follow politics that closely and they all say they wont vote for McCain because they dont want another 4 yrs of Bush.

I read another article recently that said if obama loses it will start a national race riot

I wouldnt doubt that,it would make the LA riots look like nothing.

[Chavez Ravine]

I think the Obama people have done a great job as painting McCain has Bush's third term,I dont think McCain has "weathered" or countered that very well. I talk to alot of my coworkers who dont follow politics that closely and they all say they wont vote for McCain because they dont want another 4 yrs of Bush.

The polls don't bear out that opinion. The race is 50/50 while Bush's approval rating is mid 30's. I feel that given the temperature of the nation any Dem nominee should be holding a 55/45 lead right now. The last two elections have be split right down the middle. I would think that the dems could build in a 4-5% point lead right now.

Now that the convention is over and he has a solid conservative on the ticket he will distance himself more and more from Bush while maintaining base support. That is the real strength of Palin (not wooing Hillary malcontents).

The main thing they had in common was Iraq, which isn't as huge of a issue right now. The surge is working (Obama's words) and the end is in sight...hopefully. The economy is the big issue and I think it's harder to link McCain to Bush for the economic problems. You'll see McCain's moderate side come out in the next two months. I think this will be a similar race to the Clinton races where both parties fight for the moderate middle. (Where as Kerry/Bush was a fight of extremes).

My 2 cents

[Majikku]

The polls don't bear out that opinion. The race is 50/50 while Bush's approval rating is mid 30's. I feel that given the temperature of the nation any Dem nominee should be holding a 55/45 lead right now. The last two elections have be split right down the middle. I would think that the dems could build in a 4-5% point lead right now.

Now that the convention is over and he has a solid conservative on the ticket he will distance himself more and more from Bush while maintaining base support. That is the real strength of Palin (not wooing Hillary malcontents).

The main thing they had in common was Iraq, which isn't as huge of a issue right now. The surge is working (Obama's words) and the end is in sight...hopefully. The economy is the big issue and I think it's harder to link McCain to Bush for the economic problems. You'll see McCain's moderate side come out in the next two months. I think this will be a similar race to the Clinton races where both parties fight for the moderate middle. (Where as Kerry/Bush was a fight of extremes).

My 2 cents

While Palin shored up his base,hes now risking losing independents who arent so drawn to the extreme right wing politics that Palin brings to the table.

[Chavez Ravine]

While Palin shored up his base,hes now risking losing independents who arent so drawn to the extreme right wing politics that Palin brings to the table.

Once again you can say that, but the numbers don't support that opinion. A poll this week had Palin ranked 58% of people had a favorable opinion of her. That is a large numbers than just reps.

I will say though in the next two months the VeeP's will fade away and it will become a race between Obama and McCain. In alot of respects Palin has already served her purpose. She erased the DNC bounce, energized the RNC, and solidified the base. If she can maintain a positive public opinion and perform adequately in the VP Debate she'll have done her job.

Most moderates aren't as afraid of the right wing as you are...that's why they are moderates.

once again my 2 cents

[KevRus]

Now its harsh,but Republicans made fun of Kerrys service to this country back in 2004,I guess ur only a war hero if your a Republican. Democrats who serve this country dont mean as much and are worth mocking I guess.

Was Kerry a POW? Really, enlighten me because I don't know. Perhaps you could make the argument of "You're only a war hero if you're a POW" because that would at least make sense, rather than making more embarrassing party generalizations.

Why are you attacking me for something I have nothing to do with? All I'm saying is "That's harsh." I, personally, did not "make fun" of Kerry (Oh boo hoo.) back in 2004. Saying "The Republicans" did something is SO generalized it's ridiculous.

I don't know why you keep associating everything anyone says with a specific party all the time, every time.

[Sir_Cliff]

I also know that obama's strategy is to link McCain to Bush. In all honesty I'm not sure how fair that is. On Iraq they have been locked in, but the Maverick persona was forged for a reason. I think McCain has a good shot at being able to weather that this strategy. McCain in reality was the only legit shot reps had at the oval office this term because of the moderate nature he has and the history of working with both sides. Remember he was batted around as a running mate for Kerry.

I think this is a great strategy however fair it is to be honest. Just keep hammering home that *the Republicans* have been in the White House for 8 years and royally screwed up. Have people asking whether the Republicans deserve another term over whether Barack or McCain would be a better president. If that is the question people ask themselves before casting their vote then Obama has it in the bag. I saw one of Obama's ads last night mentioning Palin but more or less taking the line "but don't forget that McCain has voted with Bush 91% of the time, etc" and showing pictures of them hugging and smiling. While not a high-impact ad, it does remind people that they are from the same party and in recent years McCain has often been one of Bush's biggest supporters. It also taps into suspicions that the Palin nomination is a purely political decision designed to win key voter demographics and distract attention from the issues.

A bigot is going to have a tough time this election. My heart really goes out to them. They have to vote for a minority on one of the tickets. Is a white women better than a black man? I would think it would be a tough choice.

Don't think it's even close: the biggot vote would definitely be more turned off by the idea of a liberal black president than by an ultraconservative white woman as vice president.

The Gallup daily poll (still can't believe they do those every day!) has Obama's lead reduced to 2% following the Republican convention so it's a statistical tie again. Must say that my opinion following both conventions has changed toward Obama rather than McCain heading for victory. The Repubs did a good job of capturing momentum and got an expected bounce, but for a few reasons that have been discussed here I suspect this might be as good as it gets for them (http://www.gallup.com/poll/110047/Ga...ks-Points.aspx)

[Majikku]

Backfired!!

Palin inspires women to vote for Democrats

MOST US women are unimpressed by Republican John McCain's choice of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, and have thrown their weight behind the Democratic ticket in the race for the White House, a national poll showed today.

Six in 10 women voters see McCain's choice of a female running mate as a calculated political decision rather than one based on Palin's experience and qualities, the poll conducted by the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group showed.

A majority of the 800 women polled - 56 per cent - said they were put off by Palin's legislative record and her position on moral issues, such as abortion.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...013948,00.html

[Darkbeer]

The latest from the Zogby Poll, McCain/Palin up by nearly 4 points, winning even with the margin of error...

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

Pollster John Zogby: "Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money."

[Majikku]

Obama: McCain focused on biography over economy

"They spent a lot of time talking about John McCain's biography, which we all honor," the Illinois senator said. "They talked about me a lot, in less than respectful terms. What they didn't talk about is you and what you're seeing in your lives and what you're going through, or what your friends or your neighbors are going through."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080905/ap_on_el_pr/obama